Week of November 17, 2025 in Review

The delayed September Jobs report showed stronger-than-expected job growth – but a rising unemployment rate. What does this mean for the Fed’s next meeting? Meanwhile, builder confidence ticked up and existing home sales rose for the second month in a row. Here’s what you need to know.

• Will September Jobs Report Lead to a Fed Pause?

• Jobless Claims Data Signals Slower Hiring

• October Existing Home Sales Rise Again

• Home Builder Confidence Inches Higher

• Family Hack of the Week

• What to Look for This Week

• Technical Picture

Will September Jobs Report Lead to a Fed Pause?

September job growth came in stronger than expected, with 119,000 jobs added versus the 50,000 forecast. However, revisions to July and August reduced the previous totals, leaving August with a net decline of 4,000 jobs. This follows a 13,000-job loss in June, marking the first two monthly declines since December 2020. The unemployment rate inched up from 4.3% to 4.4%.

What’s the bottom line? Because of the government shutdown, this report was delayed – and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release only partial October data (without an unemployment rate) alongside the full November report on December 16.

That timing matters: it’s after the Fed’s next policy meeting on December 9-10. The Fed has already cut the Fed Funds Rate in both September and October as it tries to balance above target inflation with signs of labor market cooling.

After the October meeting, Chair Jerome Powell cautioned there is “no risk-free path” ahead and emphasized that another rate cut on December 10 “is not a foregone conclusion.” Meeting minutes showed significant debate and a majority leaning against a December cut, and recent Fed commentary has underscored this divide.

The Fed is weighing two competing goals: keeping inflation in check and supporting employment. High inflation typically argues against rate cuts, while weakening labor data can push policymakers toward easing.

With September’s mixed report – stronger-than-expected job growth but a rising unemployment rate – and no additional jobs reports arriving from the BLS before the December meeting, the likelihood of another rate cut remains uncertain.

Quick refresher: When the Fed adjusts rates, it changes the Federal Funds Rate – the short-term rate banks charge each other. This doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but it influences them alongside broader economic conditions.

Jobless Claims Data Signals Slower Hiring

After being delayed by the shutdown, the BLS has released the last several weeks of jobless claims – and the trend remains the same. Weekly Initial Claims held between 220,000 and 235,000 throughout October and November. Continuing Claims, which reflect the number of people still receiving unemployment benefits, stayed above 1.9 million each week, with the latest reading reaching 1.974 million.

What’s the bottom line? While relatively low initial claims are a positive sign, the persistently high level of continuing claims – above 1.9 million since mid-May – suggests people are taking longer to find new jobs. This points to a labor market that continues to cool.

October Existing Home Sales Rise Again

The National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) reported that existing home closings rose 1.2% from September to October, slightly above expectations, and were 1.7% higher than a year ago. Inventory dipped to 1.52 million units but remained nearly 11% above last year’s level.

What’s the bottom line? Because October closings reflect buyers who were shopping in August and September, this data captures only part of the recent rate declines. That means upcoming reports may show even stronger activity. As NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted, “Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates.”

Home Builder Confidence Inches Higher

Home builder sentiment edged up 1 point to 38 in November, its highest level since April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). While the index remains below the key 50 mark that signals growth, the increase beat expectations for a flat reading.

Buyer traffic and current sales conditions both improved slightly, rising to 26 and 41. Expectations for future sales dipped three points to 51 but remained above the 50 threshold for the second straight month.

What’s the bottom line? Uncertainty and buyer hesitancy are still present but easing mortgage rates are helping affordability. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted that the group expects a modest increase in single-family home construction next year.

Family Hack of the Week

With National French Toast Day (November 28) landing on Black Friday this year, this simple yet decadent recipe from Food & Wine makes the perfect treat for the long holiday weekend. Serves 4.

In a shallow bowl or baking dish, whisk together 3 extra-large eggs, 1/2 cup milk, 1/2 teaspoon vanilla, 1/2 teaspoon cinnamon, and a pinch of freshly grated nutmeg until smooth. Dip four 3/4-inch-thick slices of challah bread into the mixture one at a time, turning each slice several times to coat evenly.

In a large, heavy skillet, melt 2 1/2 tablespoons butter over medium-low heat until it begins to bubble. Add two slices of the soaked challah and cook until the bottoms are golden brown, about 2 minutes. Flip and cook the other side for another 2 minutes, or until golden. Repeat with the remaining slices, adding more butter if needed.

Serve the French toast warm with a drizzle of maple syrup – or elevate it with fresh berries, a dusting of powdered sugar, or a dollop of whipped cream.

What to Look for This Week

On Tuesday, the government will release the delayed September data on wholesale inflation and retail sales. We’ll also get fresh reports on home price appreciation from Case-Shiller and the FHFA, along with the latest Pending Home Sales numbers from the NAR.

Technical Picture

Mortgage Bonds ended last week testing a dual ceiling of resistance at their 50-day and 25-day Moving Averages. A break above these levels could open roughly 40 basis points of upside before the next strong resistance near 101.44. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield has already moved below its 50-day moving average and finished the week testing the 25-day. If yields dip below that level, the next target is 4%.